|
[EDI-L Mailing List Archive Home]
[Message List]
[Reply To This Message]
RE: <JOBS> The Coming Job Boom?
Rich:
No, I did not read that particular article but I am quite familiar
with the dismal track record of futurists.
They take an historical trend, extrapolate it out for whatever
time period they want, and then predict all sorts of doom and
gloom based on their simplistic spreadsheets. The fatal assumption
they make is that nothing changes between now and the target date.
For example - lets take the classic case of education and
demographics. When the baby boomers entered grade school
there were not enough primary schools. So, a furious round
of school building went on. When the kids entered high school
there was a furious round of converting grade schools to high schools
and converting grade schools to other uses. So, as the baby boomer
bulge ages - like a snake that swallowed a cat - the environment
adjusts to handle the demands. At each stage, of course, the assorted
and sundry statisticians and demographers were screaming the sky
is falling.
Paul McTeigue
-----Original Message-----
From: rah1420 [mailto:
Sent: October 24, 2003 11:36 PM
To:
Subject: [EDI-L] <JOBS> The Coming Job Boom?
Okay, so it's not a job per se, but as Father Time marches on it might be.
It's apparently the opinion of some statisticians and demographers
(and not a few far sighted employers) that as America grays and hangs
up their ties and shirt protectors, the current "jobless" trend will
reverse -- and actually become painful in the other direction, where
there will be too few people chasing way way too many jobs.
The article, written by Paul Kaihla in the September 2003 issue of
Business 2.0, talks about the aging of the current workforce and the
shrinking of the replacement workforce; the first time since the '50s
that we haven't had both an expansion of available labor and an
increase in the educational level. Both indices, claims Paul, are
leveling out.
He quotes thet as early as 2005 we could see shortages in many areas
of the IT field. By 2010 it's going to start hurting employers (which
translates into good things for employees. :)
And no smart jokes about the offshoring trend -- Kaihla quotes
statistics that say that the offshoring movement could scarcely make a
dent in the demand even given near-flat economic growth. He writes,
"In other words, the long term tragedy of off-shoring isn't that it's
snatching away American jobs. It's that it can't possibly snatch
enough of them."
I've seen this argument before, and figured I'd get some discussion
going. What do y'all think about this? Anybody else read the article?
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
Message Identifiers: <SALES>, <JOBS>, <LIST>, <TECH>, <MISC>, <EVENT>,
<OFF-TOPIC>
Access the list online at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EDI-L
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|
|
Subscribe in XML format
| RSS 2.0 |
|
| Atom 0.3 |
|
|
Cart
