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RE: <JOBS> The Coming Job Boom?
You've chosen a particularly bad example that negates your entire argument.
The reason all that school building had to be done so furiously was because
in the face of undeniable demographic data on birth rates, communities
across the country refused to plan and build at an affordable rate beginning
in the late 1940's because "planning" was a dirty word, associated with
communism. Mind you, local politicians and their friends made plenty of
money building all the housing that was driving the population into their
communities. They just refused to build schools. Anyone who suggested
otherwise was branded a communist for even suggesting that planning might
save the community money in the long run. Now that communism isn't the
bogey man you've managed to find a way to discredit the need for taking
advanced action by other means. Must be difficult getting around with your
wooden shoes jamming up the works instead of on your feet.
Peter Olivola
708 445 0023
-----Original Message-----
From: Paul McTeigue [mailto:
Sent: Saturday, October 25, 2003 7:52 AM
To:
Subject: RE: [EDI-L] <JOBS> The Coming Job Boom?
Rich:
No, I did not read that particular article but I am quite familiar
with the dismal track record of futurists.
They take an historical trend, extrapolate it out for whatever
time period they want, and then predict all sorts of doom and
gloom based on their simplistic spreadsheets. The fatal assumption
they make is that nothing changes between now and the target date.
For example - lets take the classic case of education and
demographics. When the baby boomers entered grade school
there were not enough primary schools. So, a furious round
of school building went on. When the kids entered high school
there was a furious round of converting grade schools to high schools
and converting grade schools to other uses. So, as the baby boomer
bulge ages - like a snake that swallowed a cat - the environment
adjusts to handle the demands. At each stage, of course, the assorted
and sundry statisticians and demographers were screaming the sky
is falling.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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